Q2 2022 Market Report (Part I)

Coming off months of record sales, prices and bidding wars, the Western Montana real estate market (mirroring much of the country) is starting to shift. But don’t look at that as a negative. It’s simply correcting itself, which is what healthy market cycles do. Even so, demand in our local real estate is still very apparent. So whether you’ve been surprised, curious or even scared about the local real estate market, let us assure you – the Western Montana real estate market is just fine. In Part I of the Q2 2022 Market Report, we analyze the number from a County perspective, focusing on Flathead, Missoula, Ravalli and Lewis & Clark Counties. (Part II, which will come next week, will dive deeper into key towns in each of those Counties).

Mobile Readers: Swipe left on the tables below to view all data.

Average & Median Sales Price By County

Average Sales Price% Change (vs LQ)% Change (vs LY)Median Sales Price% Change (vs LQ)% Change (vs LY)
Flathead$912,486+16%+26%$675,000+19%+30%
Missoula$676,812+23%+36%$555,000+9%+28%
Ravalli$712,865+17%+22%$610,000+36%+17%
Lewis & Clark$495,555+6%+27%$460,000+27%+12%
Residential data only. All data from the Montana Regional MLS.

Overall, home prices continued to rise in Q2, however, not at the rates seen in previous quarters. Flathead County, for example, saw a 22% growth in ASP from Q1 2021 to Q2 2021, compared to a 16% growth seen in the same period this year.

Demand for homes in Western Montana is still very apparent, with percentage of list price hitting 100% (or higher) for listed homes. For Sellers, it is crucial to list at the right price. With home prices significantly higher than they were one, two and even three years ago, the equity already built is significant. Now is not the time to get greedy and push the price, even to “test” the market. Setting the right price will attract interested buyers and not have your property sit on the market for an unnecessarily long time, inevitably a “stain” on listings. For more, check out our Blog post, “5 Things A Seller Can Do As The Market Shifts.”

Supply & Demand By County

New Listings% Change (LQ/LY)Under Contract% Change (LQ/LY)Closed Sales% Change (LQ/LY)
Flathead915+65%/-9%452-3%/-37%522+37%/-22%
Missoula608+99%/+1%408+51%/-20%362+48%/-23%
Ravalli387+94%/+13%202+6%/-19%214+30%/-19%
Lewis & Clark415+89%/+3%304+42%/-10%281+63%/-8%
Residential data only. All data from the Montana Regional MLS.

We saw a large increase with new listings this quarter, but typically on par with the increased inventory coming available from Q1 (winter/spring) to Q2 (spring/summer) in Western Montana. Surprisingly, the number of homes Under Contract in Q2 2022 was down in all counties compared to Q1 2021, while they were up versus last quarter (except Flathead County, which saw a decrease in the number of properties under contract versus Q1 2022). As to be expected (as Under Contract and Closed Sales typically follow the same trajectory), the number of Closed Sales was also down versus Q2 2021. However, even though it saw a slight decrease in properties Under Contract between Q1 and Q2 2022 (-3%), Flathead County saw a large increase in Closed Sales between Q1 and Q2 2022 (+37%).

ADOM% Change (vs LQ)% Change (vs LY)Months Supply% Change (vs LQ)% Change (vs LY)
Flathead89-8%+117%2.7+80%+93%
Missoula59-24%+103%1.7+113%+70%
Ravalli81-8%+65%2.6+73%+63%
Lewis & Clark65-11%+141%1.2+71%+20%
Residential data only. All data from the Montana Regional MLS.
Average Days On Market (ADOM)
Residential data only. All data from the Montana Regional MLS.

While Average Days on Market were down slightly compared to Q1 2022, you can see in the above graph, the incredible increase we’ve experienced from last year and the chaotic market that ensued. While many factors play into this, available inventory and a Buyer’s willingness to wait (rather than urgently offer on a property) have factored into the ADOM increase.

Months Supply
Residential data only. All data from the Montana Regional MLS.

As you can see on the above graph (and what we’ve been reporting on for the past two years), inventory of available property in Western Montana has been extremely low, adding to the fevered buying. However, Q2 2022 saw the highest inventory in Flathead, Missoula, Ravalli and Lewis & Clark Counties since Q3 2020, showing the promise of a healthier and less fevered market.

So What?

For Buyers, while rates have increased this year, so has the available inventory. This gives you more options to choose from, as well as some negotiating power. While Western Montana is still seeing the percentage of list price fetching 100%+, there are other ways to negotiate a sale beyond asking price. If you’re curious what this means, contact us. Our Agents are well suited to discuss negotiating power with you depending on the property and comparable inventory available.

For Sellers, setting yourself up for success with a well-priced and ready-to-sell (eg: staged & maintained) property with an experienced Agent can be the difference in how long your property sits for. At Revel, we pride ourselves on the premium and bespoke nature of our Marketing, putting the Consumer (potential Buyers) at the center of our Marketing, ensuring the right eyes see your property listing, whether that be via email, social media or a web search. If you are considering selling, or are curious what your property might do in today’s market, contact us. We love market evaluations and discussing real estate, especially over a coffee or happy hour drink in our office.

Want more? We’ll be back next week with a town deep dive. Until then, don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to discuss more.

Kyna Williams

Kyna Williams

Kyna Williams has spent her entire career telling stories for world-renowned brands like Nike and Underwood wine-in-a-can. Now, she joins Revel as CMO and COO. On any given day, you can find Kyna negotiating ad buys, brewing a pot of coffee or assisting agents with their listing presentations.

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